Snapler

March 11, 2010

The Evolution Will be ooVood

Almost since the word first entered the Middle Eastern lexicon, globalization has gotten a bad rap. And with good reason. For hundreds of years the peoples of the region, like their counterparts across Africa, Asia and Latin America, were told that the price of great incorporation into the world economy and other benefits of modernity were imperial or colonial rule and systematic exploitation, followed by independence that brought rulers who were often little more than proxies for continued domination by their former colonizers.

In the last decade, however, a profound change has occurred in the larger perception of globalization across the Muslim world. Led by young people adept at both writing computer code and code-switching between their own and Western cultures, this more positive and proactive utilization of the technologies, concepts, and promise of globalization is epitomized both by burgeoning youth music scenes across the region and by the use of Facebook and other social networking technologies to organize activities that challenge their societies' autocratic elites.

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March 5, 2010

The Age of Discontent in the Americas? Not Really

According to the UN Commission Trade and Development over 60 percent of the population south of the Rio Grande is under 35 years old. Latin America's young people will have an impact on political stability and the economy not just in their home countries but also in the U.S., where Latin America accounts for 20 percent of U.S. exports and is the major source of narcotics consumed in the U.S. There's also the issue of immigration, where a backlash against Hispanic immigration has fueled a growing desire to close borders and sometimes spilling over into an ugly racist anger against immigrants already within our borders. With the huge demographic bubble south of U.S. border, the lack of economic opportunity faced by many of the young means that in the years ahead larger numbers of them will be knocking on U.S. doors for entry.

Drawing from surveys conducted by the AmericasBarometer at Vanderbilt University in 2008 that examine youth attitudes and activities compared to their older counterparts Mitch Seligson and I discovered that in fact Latin American youth are not turning against democracy nor are even that pessimistic about their futures. (For a graphic display of the survey data, please go to http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/1357 )

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February 27, 2010

Constitutional Court Orders Removal of Guatemalan Education Minister

On February 25, Guatemala's Constitutional Court ordered the removal of Education Minister Bienvenido Argueta for failing to provide the court with complete information regarding the beneficiaries of President Álvaro Colóm's flagship social program, Mi Familia Progresa. This latest development in a months-old political drama augurs poorly for Guatemala's fragile education system and President Colóm's claims to be supporting transparency measures in this notoriously corrupt nation.

Mi Familia Progresa (MFP) is Guatemala's conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, which provides cash payments to poor mothers, conditional upon them sending their children to school and for health check-ups. CCT programs have become increasingly popular in Latin America, as they have shown demonstrably positive results on school enrollment and child health.

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February 26, 2010

Independent Latin America Forms Its Own Organization

Latin America took another historic step forward this week with the creation of a new regional organization of 32 Latin American and Caribbean countries. The United States and Canada were excluded.

The increasing independence of Latin America has been one of the most important geopolitical changes over the last decade, affecting not only the region but the rest of the world as well. For example, Brazil has publicly supported Iran's right to enrich uranium and opposed further sanctions against the country. Latin America, once under the control of the United States, is increasingly emerging as a power bloc with its own interests and agenda.

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February 20, 2010

Haiti: Public Relations War and Historical Symbolism

Even as Haiti reconstruction efforts proceed apace, the public relations battle is heating up. Juan Forero, a conservative reporter with the Washington Post, remarks that Obama might benefit politically from relief operations. "A successful mission," he points out, "...could advance U.S. diplomacy in a region long suspicious of U.S. intentions." Forero quotes Cresencio Arcos, a former U.S. ambassador to Honduras who sees good things in store. "I think that the United States will look very magnanimous," the diplomat remarked. "Haiti is good for the United States," he added, "to show its humanitarian side."

The U.S. is in dire need of an image makeover, and some cynical Washington policymakers may privately share Arcos' sentiments. Shortly after taking office Obama promised a new beginning with Latin America, emphasizing that there would be "no senior or junior partner" in terms of the U.S. relationship with the wider region. The U.S. president even shook hands with Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and called Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva "my man."

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February 2, 2010

Journalism in Latin America: Who Should Pay the Bill?

Latin American countries need good quality journalism to protect, consolidate, and strengthen democracy. Historically associated to investigative journalists working for newspapers, good quality journalism is expensive and now faces serious challenges due to the unprecedented financial crisis affecting newspapers worldwide. If we agree that democracies need good journalism, somebody needs to pay the bill.

The only realistic -- and unfortunately very risky -- means for newspapers' survival is to receive help from the state. None of the other options, including that readers pay for their papers, private advertisement, and revenues from an endowment, will work in Latin America.

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January 28, 2010

History May Be Haiti’s Greatest Resource

Haiti was founded by a righteous revolution in 1804, the first black republic, the first to force Emperor Napoleon to retreat, the first to break the chains of slavery, the only to aid Bolivar in his struggle to liberate Latin America. It is the response of the powerful to that history that has impoverished Haiti. Feared by Jefferson for their successful uprising; extorted by France in 1825 for 150 million French francs to compensate France for losing these once chatteled people (a debt the Haitian people finally finished repaying more than a century later); occupied by the U.S. military to stifle European influences in Latin America; disrespected in their quest for democracy by dictators and coup d'états backed by Western powers, the free people of Haiti have been continually crushed with the enormous debt that attempted to re-shackle them.

Why does this history matter in the face of the current tragedy? Because this history and the constant fight and struggle of the Haitian people for justice and dignity are their greatest resource. It is this history that makes Haiti mighty -- mighty without wealth, without natural resources, without arable land and without arms.

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Central America’s Rule of Law: Guatemala Captures Portillo But Honduras Rewards Micheletti

For decades, impunity has reined in Central America. Dictatorial rule, coups, murder, and genocide have, for the most part, gone unpunished. This month, however, events in Guatemala have suggested a potential turning of the tide. In the last three weeks, Guatemalan authorities have solved the potentially destabilizing Rosenberg case and arrested ex-President Alfonso Portillo for money laundering $70 million when he was in power. Meanwhile, in Honduras, the rule of law appears as in jeopardy as ever, as the Congress has rewarded de facto President Roberto Micheletti and pledged amnesty for all those involved in ousting President Manuel Zelaya. When it comes to the rule of law, Honduras lags as far behind as ever.

Since the Peace Accords brought Guatemala's 36-year civil war to an end in 1996, Guatemalan activists and international observers have demanded justice for the state-sponsored genocide in the 1980s. For the most part, however--as in most of Latin America--justice has not come. Moreover, since the late 1990s, crime has spiraled out of control, perceptions of corruption are high, and the legal system has proved incapable of apprehending and prosecuting both common criminals and thieving politicians. Pervasive impunity partially explains the horrific practice of lynchings that plagues Guatemala. But the failing of the rule of law in the region also contributes to Guatemalans' disenchantment with democracy (desencanto democrático).

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January 20, 2010

Scott Brown’s Victory: Implications for Latin America

Yesterday's special election in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy's U.S. Senate seat had little to do with Latin America, but the implications of Scott Brown's victory over Martha Coakley will nonetheless resonate across the region. That's because the victory of the Republican candidate breaks the Democrats' super majority of 60 votes in the Senate, and will likely require renewed negotiation and accommodation in order to pass the massive health care bill that has been the top priority of the White House and congressional leaders since early 2009. Further delay on health care means that other agenda items will have to wait even longer for the political attention required to address them, and the mood on Capitol Hill could well become still more partisan and sour.

That's doubly true for controversial legislation, particularly as we move further into 2010, which is a midterm election year. Since President Obama was inaugurated one year ago today, three out of the four special elections have been won by Republicans (the Massachusetts Senate seat and the Governorships of Virginia and New Jersey). Only an upstate New York Congressional seat was won by the Democratic candidate, and that was after the Republican vote split over two candidates. Looking ahead to the elections in November, many observers predict that Democratic losses will mount, which means the White House and Congressional leadership will do whatever they can to improve the midterm prospects by juicing the economy, creating jobs and strengthening the support of the Democratic base, particularly organized labor.

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January 1, 2010

Water Crisis, Energy Crisis, Vicious Cycle

Water Needs Energy Needs Water

Reading Steven Solomon's excellent new book "Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization" I was reminded again of the connection between the water challenge and the field to which I dedicated my life -- energy security.

It is widely accepted that water shortage can -- and most probably will -- lead to military conflict, mass migration, food shortages and a host of other security challenges. What is less appreciated is the connection between water and energy and how intertwined are the energy challenge and the water challenge we are facing today globally.

Water is essential to the production of energy of all forms. In the aging oil wells of Saudi Arabia more water is pumped in to increase reservoir pressure than the amount of oil that is actually being pumped out. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, 2 to 2.5 gallons of water are used to produce each gallon of gasoline from conventional crude and more than 6 gallons of water are required to produce one gallon of gasoline from oil shale. Alternative fuels are also water intensive. The voice of the U.S. ethanol industry, the Renewable Fuels Association, estimates that 3.45 gallons of water are used per gallon of corn ethanol produced. Electric generation is no less water intensive. Ninety percent of all power plants in the U.S. are thermoelectric, requiring billions of gallons to cool the steam used to drive their turbines. In recent years, plans for new power plants had to be scrapped because water-use permits could not be obtained. In most countries in Latin America including Brazil, Paraguay, Peru and Argentina, hydroelectric power is the main source of electricity. Want to build a concentrated solar thermal power plant or a nuclear power plants which produce clean energy? Better make sure there is ample supply of water nearby. Solar thermal power plants require large amounts of water to create the steam that spins the turbines and for their cooling towers. Sunny places like southern California and Nevada where solar power would otherwise be an ideal source of electricity often suffer from water shortages that make this form of energy a non-starter.

Our water crisis is manageable using today's technologies. But most of those technologies require energy. Energy in the form of electricity, petroleum and natural gas is used to pump and process clean drinking water. Desalination and waste water treatment plants are energy intensive and their operation is associated with high level of greenhouse gas emissions.

As Solomon correctly points out, we cannot address the water challenge without access to affordable energy. Conversely, we cannot solve the energy challenge without addressing the water challenge. And yet, while every senator and representative has a speech ready on our energy predicament, very few members of Congress or senior administration officials have shown keen interest in water. We don't have a water czar, and since the 2003 death of water champion in Washington, Illinois Senator Paul Simon, very few politicians have done much to advance the issue of water scarcity. Sen. Simon's successor, Sen. Dick Durbin who sponsored the Paul Simon Water for the Poor Act of 2005 which makes access to safe water and sanitation a specific policy objective of U.S. foreign assistance is a rare exception. Since the March 2009 introduction by Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) and Murkowski (R-AK), chair and ranking member of the Senate Energy Committee, of the Energy and Water Integration Act of 2009 requiring an in-depth analysis of the impact of energy development and production on the water resources of the United States not one member of the U.S. Senate found the energy-water nexus important enough to co-sponsor the bill.

In the U.S. water is abundant and there is no need to import it from hostile regimes as in the case of oil which is perhaps why the issue doesn't poll at that high to get our political class interested in H2O as much as they are interested in CO2. If Steven Solomon is right in his dire picture of the world's looming water crisis, that too will soon change.
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